Here's an honest question to ask on any hole that's given you trouble before: what's the shot that guarantees bogey, no matter what?

Most double bogeys don't come from a bad shot. They come from a good shot attempted at the wrong moment — the hero 3-wood over water when a 7-iron layup guarantees a two-putt bogey and keeps the big number off the card.

Play the shot that caps your worst-case outcome, especially on the holes that have burned you before. Boring golf is usually better golf.